A study of radiological scoring system evaluating extrapancreatic inflammation with conventional radiological and clinical scores in predicting outcomes in acute pancreatitis

Abstract

Background A number of scoring systems are available to predict prognosis in acute pancreatitis (AP). The aim of the study was to compare extra-pancreatic inflammation on computed tomography (CT) (EPIC score) and renal rim sign with clinical scores (BISAP, SIRS) and conventional CT severity index (CTSI) and modified CTSI (MCTSI) in predicting persistent organ failure (POF), intervention and mortality.

Methods The demographic, clinical and radiographic data from patients with AP were retrospectively evaluated. The scores were evaluated by calculating receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curves and area under the ROC (AUROC).

Results Of the 105 patients (65 males; mean age 40.6±12.9 years) included, 8 died, 71 developed POF, and 16 needed intervention. The mean CTSI, MCTSI and EPIC scores were 5.8±3.0, 7.1±2.6 and 4.0±1.9 respectively. The AUROC for SIRS, BISAP, CTSI, MCTSI, Renal Rim Score and EPIC score in predicting POF were 0.65 (95%CI 0.53-0.78), 0.75 (95%CI 0.65-0.86), 0.66 (95%CI 0.54-0.78), 0.70 (95%CI 0.58-0.81), 0.64 (95%CI 0.52-0.76), 0.71 (95%CI 0.60-0.83), for radiological/endoscopic intervention were 0.50 (95%CI 0.35-0.65), 0.64 (95%CI 0.49-0.78), 0.51 (95%CI 0.36-0.66), 0.55 (95%CI 0.41-0.70), 0.51 (95%CI 0.36-0.67), 0.66 (95%CI 0.52-0.81), and for mortality 0.57 (95%CI 0.38-0.75), 0.90 (95%CI 0.83-0.97), 0.67 (95%CI 0.50-0.83), 0.68 (95%CI 0.51-0.85), 0.73 (95%CI 0.57-0.89) and 0.77 (95%CI 0.64-0.90) respectively.

Conclusion The prognostic performance of various clinical and radiological scoring systems in AP is comparable with BISAP having the highest accuracy for predicting POF and mortality.

Keywords Computed tomography, acute pancreatitis, idiopathic pancreatitis, necrosis

Ann Gastroenterol 2015; 28 (3): 397-402